Starmer's Backers Begin 'Halt Andy Burnham' Drive to Prevent Mayor's Commons Return

Close associates of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly set in motion a concerted initiative to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a return to the House of Commons. This move follows the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has sparked an impending by-election.

Significant Obstacles in the Candidate Selection Process

Several figures on the Labour Party's powerful NEC have reportedly predicted it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection procedure. This is largely due to the sizable number of Starmer loyalists on the body who are desperate to avert any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The party apparatus is said to have mobilised following the revelation of the MP's planned departure, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial financial cost and political risk of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Previously, he prompted outrage within No 10 and among senior ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had urged him to stand for the party leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to potentially stand for the Labour leadership should a contest to Sir Keir emerge. However, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against exaggerating the level of any scheming, stating he is passionate about his current role and would solely re-enter national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Political Landscape and Poll Ratings

Amid polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole prominent Labour personality with consistently positive public approval ratings.

Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, several hurdles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the byelection against competition from Reform UK and independent candidates, all prior to any possible leadership challenge.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

Senior Labour figures have indicated that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already in progress, with the party's organisation being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally commented that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to stop talking about possible contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

Figures on the committee have reportedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.

Several sources also expressed fears about Nigel Farage’s party potentially fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Union Influence and Procedural Fears

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. It is also possible the committee could enforce an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

However, a supporter counselled against presuming the NEC would simply reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.

The trade unions occupy a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently keeping their counsel, insiders suggested they would be opposed to anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The constituency in question holds a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is likely to launch a strong challenge, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.

If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the parliamentary party.

The departing MP confirmed he was stepping down due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He is also subject to a parliamentary standards investigation related to his involvement in an inappropriate online group.