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The past seemed less complicated. The fourth meeting of Scotland and New Zealand. A packed stadium, a 0-0 draw, winter of 1964. Euphoria at full-time. A pitch invasion to symbolize the historic accomplishment by Scotland.

Having beaten Ireland, Wales and England, New Zealand had at last been stopped in a international match.

The man from Pathe News was nearly overcome with excitement. "An unforgettable sporting spectacle," he announced excitedly with considerable hope. "Where Scottish rugby preserved British pride."

Leaving the stadium that evening, home supporters would have had hope for the future. Multiple efforts to defeat the All Blacks and no wins, but clear signs that maybe one was not far off.

Three years later, New Zealand beat the Scots. Five years after that, history repeated itself. Three years further on, identical outcome. Another five-year gap and, yes, the pattern continued.

Recent History

Two decades of matches later. Twenty All Black wins. From Christchurch to Dunedin, Auckland to Cardiff - the landscapes have changed but not the outcomes.

In his time in the job, Gregor Townsend has broken winless streaks in major European venues, but this challenge is different. This is 32 games across 120 years. Among rugby's most persistent curses.

Squad Updates

In recent years the landslide 20, 30 and 40-point wins have reduced to closer margins in recent encounters, but the All Blacks always find a way.

Through their brilliance, physical dominance, game management, they secure victory.

We're now at the point of the week where the optimism that supporters maintained for a Scottish win is probably beginning to fade. Optimism meets historical reality.

Missing Players

Recent updates revealed that Zander Fagerson hadn't made it. For Scotland's hopes it was like a kick in the guts.

Fagerson hasn't played since April, but he's exceptional and if available then the long gap without a game would not have been too worrying.

During modern rugby early in matches, his endurance stands out. No tighthead played nearly as many minutes in the Six Nations.

Replacement Concerns

Another absence is Jones but Rory Hutchinson is flying form with his club. There's no such quality replacing big Zander. While Rae is capable, his Test career consists of 73 minutes stretched across six years.

And when Rae is finished, there's Elliot Millar-Mills to come on. Millar-Mills is a decent prop, evidence is lacking that he can match New Zealand's standard.

Coaching Choices

Townsend has sprung surprises, partly expected, some puzzling. Kyle Steyn's game-management intelligence replaces Duhan van der Merwe's more one-dimensional power.

The flanker selection is unconventional, Rory Darge starting on the bench. Onyeama-Christie's omission is notable.

Past Encounters

Against Ireland, the All Blacks secured the first leg of what they hope will be a Grand Slam tour. They took an age to get going, even when playing against 14 men, but their last-quarter demolition did the trick.

Combined with Irish vulnerabilities, offensive struggles, their line-out and their scrum collapsing.

Statistical Analysis

Despite late-game surges, the last 20 minutes is not where the All Blacks do most of their damage. Across international matches recently, they've accumulated scores in opening periods and fewer after halftime.

They've scored 39 in the first quarter, 48 in the second, 26 in the third and solid finishes. They start aggressively.

Required Performance

Against Scotland in 2022, New Zealand scored early in the opening seven minutes. Leading 14-0, the game looked done. Scotland recovered majestically to hit them with 23 unanswered points.

The clear message is that, metaphorically, Scotland must put the boot on the throat from the start - maintaining intensity.

Over the last decade, the teams that have managed to beat New Zealand have needed to score in the upper twenties. Scottish scoring only twice in their past 13 games against the All Blacks.

Final Analysis

Perfect execution is required for Scotland. Absolutely everything. Wasted opportunities then hopes fade. A yellow card? Repeated infringements? A battered scrum? The game is lost.

With perfect execution? Explosive start. A raucous crowd. Electric atmosphere. Ruthlessness. Russell being Russell. Darcy Graham's brilliance.

Optimistic thinking, maybe. Consistent performance has been elusive from Scotland that would be good enough to beat the All Blacks. If it's in there, it's about time it came out; a century is sufficient.